…Time will tell…
As we begin 2015 â€" the year Apple has promised to release the Apple Watch it showed last September â€" there’s a somewhat comical debate underway in the media: how big of a success will the Watch actually be?
Although I’m not personally planning to buy an Apple Watch, three decades of using Apple products and over a decade of reviewing them have taught me that Apple now has only three types of launches: gigantic hits, hits, and near-hits. And those phrases are all relative.
Two of Apple’s “least popular†product families, the Apple TV and iPod, have sold in quantities most companies would kill for. These are devices that haven’t been meaningfully updated in several years, and many people have called the iPod “dead,†despite sales of 14 million units in the past year. Even as a semi-successful “hobby,†the Apple TV reached around 10 million customers in the last year, a larger group of users than the typical company can achieve in a whole lineup.
So it’s hard to call any modern Apple product a “flop,†but it’s also true that a few of its major releases â€" most notably the Apple TV â€" were particularly close to being misses in their first generations, requiring major price and/or feature changes before succeeding in the next generation. Where will the Apple Watch fit in Apple’s history? Today alone, we’ve seen predictions ranging from “2015 is the year of the Apple Watch†and “could change the way people live†to a somber prediction that it won’t be “the homerun product that iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been.â€Â Similar opinions have been circulating for months.
After reading both dire and overenthusiastic predictions, as well as measuring demand several months out from the release, my belief is somewhere in the middle: the Apple Watch will do better in its first year than the first-generation Apple TV, falling somewhere between the first-generation iPhone (6.1 million units, below Apple’s target of 10 million) and the original iPad (14.8 million units, wildly surpassing most estimates). The iPhone is huge now, but it wasn’t a “gigantic hit†in its first year, while the iPad roared out of the gate and has stayed pretty strong since then. Below, I’ll explain why I think the Apple Watch will be somewhere in the middle.
Why The Apple Watch Will Succeed
It Looks Good Enough To Win Fans â€" Maybe Even New Ones. From what I’ve gathered â€" and judging from many of the new hires Apple has made to ensure its success â€" the Apple Watch’s fashion appeal is critical to winning a new base of customers. Wearables and fashion accessories need not appeal to everyone in order to be popular; there is no single hat, for instance, that every person would choose to wear. Creating a universally wow-inducing hat or watch is a lot harder than making a universally wow-inducing phone, which the original iPhone notably did.
Rather, a wearable needs to attract enough wearers to reach a critical mass, and convince them that they won’t look ridiculous in public. That’s the bar the Apple Watch has certainly hurdled. Between the basic aluminum version, the fancier stainless versions, and the luxe gold versions, Apple has created enough options to appeal to several different groups â€" primarily athletes, wealthy men, and wealthy women â€" with the sizes and materials necessary to win critical masses in each. You don’t need to like every version of the Apple Watch, just one, and if you’re willing to pay for it, Apple makes a sale. By going after the readers of Vogue and reaching out to customers at Parisian fashion boutiques, Apple isn’t limiting itself to the people who typically fill Apple Stores, and has certainly won some of them over.
It Adds Conveniences To Your Wrist. The second biggest selling point of the Apple Watch is what it will actually do. No one would dispute that Apple could easily sell millions of $99 Jony Ive-designed watches that did little more than tell the time and play music. But to justify a $349 starting price, the Watch needs to do more. Fans of the Apple Watch point to a handful of conveniences the device will add to the iPhone it connects to: “logging†(biometric data), “controlling†(other devices), “authenticating†(payments and other devices), “alerting†(with alarms) and “communicating†(via messages and voice), each providing simple, wrist-based access to functions previously stored less conveniently in a pocket.
Are these features compelling? That’s far more a matter of personal preference than the naysayers would have you believe. Just remember, Apple doesn’t need to win anywhere close of a majority of the entire watch market’s customers in order for the Apple Watch to be a “success.†And developers are seemingly beyond excited to start releasing new apps that expand its already-announced capabilities.
Millions Of People Will Certainly Buy It, No Matter What. The Apple Watch can’t “fail†in an absolute sense of that word because of Apple’s large, loyal user base. History has repeatedly demonstrated that even if Apple only launches a product in a handful of countries, it can count on somewhere between 1 and 2 million people to purchase any major, properly-marketed new product on the first day of availability without having used it â€" and quite possibly to wait in line for it overnight. Moreover, its products tend to be more successful with every passing generation, as it continually improves features, designs, and pricing to hit the right mixes to win new customers.
When the original Apple TV launched eight years ago, at a not-quite-right $299 price point and with some serious first-generation problems, Apple was able to sell around a million units in the first year. That was at the height of the iPod’s popularity and at a point when iTunes video downloading was relatively new. Since then, the iPhone and iPad have eclipsed the iPod in popularity, creating an even bigger base of potential Apple Watch customers. A survey claims that 5% of iPhone users are either “very†or “extremely†likely to buy the Watch; even half of that would still be in the double-digit millions. (Over 500 million iPhones have been sold, but the exact number of current users is unclear.) Depending on the demand it forecasts in the first few countries, Apple can quickly expand the launch or tweak pricing to sell whatever it decides to make.
Why The Apple Watch Won’t Be A Gigantic Hit (At First)
Having made the case for the Apple Watch above, I note again that I’m personally not interested in owning one â€" yet. I’ve purchased every iPod, Apple TV, iPhone, and iPad ever made except for the iPad mini 3, and am on record as supporting both the iPhone and the iPad before either one was formally announced. But the Apple Watch just doesn’t do it for me. I’d describe myself as waiting for a more compelling second- or third-generation model.
I’ve been following the wearables market closely for years, read all of Apple’s marketing materials, and really loved the Watch’s first video trailer. I’ve re-watched the trailer just to listen to the music, and would buy the song if I could. It’s a cool piece of marketing that elegantly introduces an exciting new product. The problem is that the product doesn’t yet fit a need that I have, at least in a way that suits my tastes. And many surveys have suggested that I’m part of a relatively large majority, so I’m far from the only person who feels that way.
Battery Life Will Be A Dealbreaker For Many People. For me, the single biggest problem is Apple Watch’s battery life. Apple has said that the Watch will need to be charged every night, and that’s just not something I want to worry about for something I rely upon to keep time. I don’t want to think about whether my watch battery will be dead when I step off a plane, or whether it will stop working if I’m out late at night, or whether there will be an issue using it in the morning if I fall asleep with my watch on my wrist. If the Watch could run for a week between charges, I could live with it. One day of run time is just a non-starter for me.
There’s No Killer Feature (Yet). Next up is the core functionality. I understand what the Apple Watch can do, but none of the features are either independently or collectively compelling enough to justify an expensive purchase. Biometric tracking, light communication, controlling other devices â€" I really don’t know that I need something other than my iPhone to do these things. Some of them will be so limited using the Watch that I’d be better off just using the iPhone, anyway. If there’s a killer app for the Apple Watch, it has yet to be announced.
Most People Appear Disinterested (For Now). And if you believe the surveys, most other people don’t think they need these features, either. An entire generation of teenagers and twenty-somethings have grown up without wearing watches; their parents have spent decades viewing watches mostly as fashion or simple functional accessories. Tim Cook acknowledged this at an AllThingsD conference: “none of them are going to convince a kid that hasn’t worn glasses or a band to wear one. … There are a lot of problems to solve in this space.â€Â Competing smartwatches â€" even more attractive ones released late last year for $100 less than the Apple Watch â€" haven’t really caught on with mainstream users. It’s going to take time and effort to reverse these trends.
The Hardware/Software Are Close, But Not Quite Right. I’m also not totally thrilled about the look of the first-generation software or hardware, which is really important for something I’d wear all day. While I love a couple of the bands Apple chose â€" the Milanese and Link options â€" the actual watch looks a little too large and not quite the right shape for my wrist; I found the sixth-generation iPod nano too big to wear every day as a watch, and the Apple Watch is in the same ballpark.
On more picky notes, the new San Francisco font is too Android-like for my taste, and unlike other of the Watch’s displays, apparently non-customizable. Kinks in implementation also need to be worked out: for instance, early reports suggest that you’ll need to enter a PIN code to re-activate Apple Pay on the Watch every time you take it off your wrist. There are a lot of little things like this that need extra polish, and my guess is that Apple is not going to change them for a while.
We Still Don’t Know All The Prices, And They Won’t Be Cheap. This one’s simple: the Apple Watch “starts at $349,†but no one knows yet how much the stainless steel and gold versions will cost. They could be merely “too high,†as the plastic-banded entry-level model is, or “completely laughable,†which is more of a risk for the gold version â€" enough that people are already contemplating whether they’ll need to be melted down, resold, or traded in to Apple when the second-generation Apple Watch comes out. The fact that people are already discussing disposal prospects for a product they don’t yet own isn’t a great sign.
So Where Does That Leave Us?
Apple was under a lot of pressure to announce a new product category in 2014, and the Apple Watch’s early announcement demonstrated that the company’s designers and engineers had indeed been working hard on something new. Enough people responded positively to the announcement that Apple won’t have trouble selling a million or two units at launch, but it’s unclear whether it will have an iPhone-like first year â€" falling short of initial targets even with a price drop â€" or do stronger numbers just because the Apple user base is so much larger and more global now. My personal feeling is that there were more compelling day one uses and fewer functional roadblocks for the iPhone and the iPad, but a lot could change before the Apple Watch is released.
I’m going to be glad to sit this particular launch out. But I’ll definitely be interested in the second- or third-generation model if the battery life and pricing improve. What about you?
You can already pre-order an Apple Watch stand/charger and it is actually really nice
Russian newspaper claims Apple has applied for ‘iWatch’ trademark in the country
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I will probably get one of the $350 models given that I have a Fitbit and am looking to upgrade to something better, but I don’t think that there will be huge demand like there were for the early iPhones.
Can’t wait for it.
My impression is that the AWatch was designed for a Hardware that is not here yet. Is sort of an overkill, over engineered product for a first version. Excellent marketing material though. The luxury models are a flat out mistake, unless it was created mostly for marketing purposes to make the entry model look like a bargain.
It seems that Apple’s Minimalistic Philosophy is just skin deep fluff. I’d have liked to see a simpler, humbler option with no biometric monitoring but highly functional monochrome Always On ePaper Display selling for $99 just like the Pebble which provides a workable option for more pragmatic people.
Also in day to day usage, real hard Buttons, again like the Pebble, provides a much better interface than the hyped Crown. Is difficult and tedious to turn that thing from my experience with other watches that I’ve used.
Another personal concern on all these wearables not just the AWatch. Is the fact that I’m attaching a radio frequency generator (Bluetooth+WiFi) so close to my body for most of the day, every day.
It will be fun to see how AWatch does in the Market once it is released.
Accounting for everything that has happened after Steve Jobs stepped down I see Apple like just another Tech company. The people and circumstances that brought us the iPhone are gone, were fired, retired or are too busy enjoying their fortunes.
The Smartwatch Hit product that gets it right won’t come from Apple.
Watch Pebble at CES 2015…
All it has to do is tell the time, in which case, why not just use dials and not have to worry about charging for multiple months…
Seems like a lot of people actually think apple will show of something like a ‘killer feature’ for the Apple watch. I don’t think so. I think they don’t know what it’s good for theirselves. At the event, Tim Cook was clearly copying Jobs. But I don’t think that only was for a presentational reason, but because he didn’t know how to present a whole new category to the world.
He’s a great CEO, but defenetely not ment to be on stage. I always liked Federighi and Forstall there.
Anyway, back to the Watch: This device won’t fail because it does almost everything that phones do. And isn’t that everything we want from smartwatches? To be fast-access devices for our phones to look onto when a message comes in during a meeting? And don’t people want phones of all sizes and shapes? I think it’s not an extraordinary device, but one that will defenetely sell good.
The thing that people are getting wrong when they consider Apple Watch is the same thing everyone got wrong when iPad was first announced. They said it was a big iPod Touch, why would anyone need that? Well, just like the iPhone before it, it wasn’t the iPad itself that changed people’s opinionsâ€"it is all about the apps.
Apple Watch isn’t going to succeed because it’s an Apple product, or because it connects to an iPhone. It’s going to succeed because of HOW it connects to an iPhone, and how that connection to and interaction with various apps can be used to improve certain aspects of our daily lives. That is where the innovation will come in, and you can bet that every other “smartwatch†will quickly begin to resemble the Apple Watch in terms of functionality, just like smartphones did after iPhone and tablets did after iPad.
I agree that Tim Cook isn’t the best presenter, but he’s been consistently improving. I don’t think that he copies Steve Jobs’ presenting style at all, I think he has a different method entirely. Obviously, Steve Jobs was an amazing orator and you could really see and feel his passion when he was on stageâ€"that is a quality that I believe usually comes naturally or must really be worked on in order to achieve. However, I like Tim Cook as the face of the company, he’s doing an amazing job as CEO and I like the way he carries himself in interviews. I see his passion for the company and it’s products, it just comes through in a different way than it did for Jobs.
The Apple Watch is also very obviously a first gen product. Battery life sounds utterly miserable (a watch of all things should last for MONTHS on a battery), and it’s also very fat and bulky looking. To my eyes it’s not even attractive as a piece of fashion, as any other high end watch would be.
Apple should be focussing more on TV. That’s an area desperate for innovation and one in which people are more interested and invested than ever.
Also, expecting a smartwatch to have months of battery? You’ve got your hopes to high to expect something like that now, or even within the next decade.
While the AppleWatch may have great functionality, that is one butt-ugly font. Glad to know I’m not the only one that feels this way.
I’m sure getting one! I loved my polar loop :) just sold it for the apple watch.
The one day battery issue I could live with if it quick charges. If I can fully charge it while taking a shower or some other routine activity then no problem. If it requires more than two hours then that will be painful.
The big deal for me? Lack of camera. Seriously, I’ve waited all my life for the Dick Tracy wrist video phone. I imagine this will be second or most likely third generation. A hot spot connection to the iPhone in my pocket and solid wearable FaceTime would be amazing.
I’ve bought a slip case wallet for my iPhone. I’m thinking I will not physically use it as much while I wear the watch. The less I am pulling the phone out when about town the less likely I am to break it. This all sounds like a plus for me as I’ve broken nearly every generation of iPhone and several iPads.
Time will tell.